Any deal is market positive in my opinion. I tend to agree with republicans that in order to reduce the debt, spending cuts are the only solution. It would seem that the path we are on involves a default or an attempt to inflate away the debt. After all, do we really have the balls to fire government employees and terminate government contracts? We already have a weak economy, imagine one without cushy government jobs. Just imagine...
Should we get a deal tomorrow, the above count is how I see it. There's some fancy dancy math to guestimate a region for a top which is somewhere between 1467 and 1546. The top limit is based on the rule that the "third wave" can't bee the shortest in an impulse. I have this counted correctively as a-b-c-d-e, but it's the same form as ending diagonal. The bottom limit of 1467 is taken from the observation that the ratio of 206/351 is close to the fib .618 so multiplying 206 by .618 and adding to the local low at 1340 gives us the limit 1467. I would say we hit this "e" target in the first quarter, maybe January or February.