Solar Flares, Full Moons, and Skeptics, OH MY!

Naysayers were sent with their tails between their legs today.  Last week it was all elliott smelliott wave, full moon? yawn!, Solar flares?  Stick it up Uranus.  Now it's quiet which is nice because I think the world heard me ring the register on my puts today.  I don't think it's done, but I think a retrace is very possible.  If we open up tomorrow flat to down, or just resume the down-trend, I'll probably have a trigger in place, but we're sitting on the middle of the band in so many names, the put-call ratio is pretty high... that's not necessarily a sign of the end of a down move, but I had profits, so I took them.  Just throwing out possible targets... first is around 1260 in the range of the 4 wave.  The next big one is the 1200 area.  At this point, I still believe the dip is a buying opportunity, so I'm leaning toward the 1260 area, that'd be the middle of the weekly bands.  Not much solid stuff to say now, maybe I'll take a stab at counting this down move once I get a better handle on it, gotta see more before I can label with confidence.

For the Love of Squiggles

Wow, sometimes I surprise myself.  I woke up this morning amazed that ES bounced off 1310, then after the open the low was only 1.5 from my number... eerily close.  They probably just want me to think I know what I'm doing and then pull the rug out from under me :).  So here's how I make sense of today's action.  The triangle seems pretty obvious to me.  Broke out and the two wave almost violated the low, but stayed above in futures and cash.  Some of the other indexes violate where I have yellow 2... ehh... maybe we're in complex correction and this 4 wave isn't over.  If that's the case, I would expect the correction to stay within the recent lows and highs... maybe trace out a larger triangle, but honestly, who knows?

[edit: 4:51] or duh, maybe yellow 2 isn't over...

Burning the Midnight Oil

If Futures keep falling into the open, I'm thinking they might catch a bid at A=C around 1310.

Insert Witty Title Here

This formation has been staring me in the face for months, and with the trend-lines converging, it might be nearing termination.  Probably prudent to wait and see if it throws over the channel lines before reversing.  If this count is incorrect, my next alternate is that where I have marked 3 and 4 are actually 1 and 2 a degree lower, and 3 is completing, not the entire wave.  In that case we would still have some correction for a 4 wave, but alternation suggests it would be flat.  The BPSPX recently made a blow off move, a reversal in BPSPX from this level is probably the real deal.  Waiting to see the EOD print on BPSPX and CPCE. 

Bullish Sentiment Cracking

The recent drop off seems to suggest a larger wave.  There is every reason to expect a retrace in the beginning of the week, but I think the play is to short a touch of the top of the daily bollinger bands.  The party won't last forever though.  This dip is most likely a buying opportunity.

Koolaid losing its luster?

Just posting to suggest to keep an eye on sugar.  With the past few weeks' action predicated on the flood of cheap money and inflation, looking at commodities like sugar seems appropriate.

On the daily chart we see a pattern resembling the February decline.  Price action slammed through the 34 day and has been bumping up against the bottom of the 34 and the middle of the daily bands.  The February action is a perfect example of rallying into a declining MA cross, then repelling from the cross.  The current action could suggest biding time before continuing a sell-off in a similar fashion.

The weekly sugar chart on the other hand suggests sugar could be basing on support preparing for an extended 5th wave up.  I'm not really going to suggest it resolves one way or another and definitely not suggesting a certain correlation to the market; I have some opinions, but really just want to draw your attention to it.

Exclusive shots of the wizard

After a long venture down the yellow brick road, I finally got POMO's autograph.

Gotcha!

Nonsensical Jibba Jabba

For all my jaw boning about a 2 wave retrace, I'm starting to reconsider the notion.  If you look at the charts from 4/26 you see a few places where we had 2 day churn in a downtrend.  After these churns wore off oversold conditions, they sold off.  If the pattern repeats, then your stop could be the high of the churn, or recommended approach would be to form a channel from the highs and use the channel line as a guideline for covering shorts.

Motive Down Counts

If I don't post, don't think I'm not thinking.

Do you count the top as truncated?  I dont.

Very likely that green 5th is already done.