Wow, sometimes I surprise myself. I woke up this morning amazed that ES bounced off 1310, then after the open the low was only 1.5 from my number... eerily close. They probably just want me to think I know what I'm doing and then pull the rug out from under me :). So here's how I make sense of today's action. The triangle seems pretty obvious to me. Broke out and the two wave almost violated the low, but stayed above in futures and cash. Some of the other indexes violate where I have yellow 2... ehh... maybe we're in complex correction and this 4 wave isn't over. If that's the case, I would expect the correction to stay within the recent lows and highs... maybe trace out a larger triangle, but honestly, who knows?
[edit: 4:51] or duh, maybe yellow 2 isn't over...
