Saturday, November 27, 2010

Koolaid losing its luster?

Just posting to suggest to keep an eye on sugar.  With the past few weeks' action predicated on the flood of cheap money and inflation, looking at commodities like sugar seems appropriate.

On the daily chart we see a pattern resembling the February decline.  Price action slammed through the 34 day and has been bumping up against the bottom of the 34 and the middle of the daily bands.  The February action is a perfect example of rallying into a declining MA cross, then repelling from the cross.  The current action could suggest biding time before continuing a sell-off in a similar fashion.



The weekly sugar chart on the other hand suggests sugar could be basing on support preparing for an extended 5th wave up.  I'm not really going to suggest it resolves one way or another and definitely not suggesting a certain correlation to the market; I have some opinions, but really just want to draw your attention to it.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Exclusive shots of the wizard

After a long venture down the yellow brick road, I finally got POMO's autograph.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Gotcha!

Friday, August 13, 2010

Nonsensical Jibba Jabba

For all my jaw boning about a 2 wave retrace, I'm starting to reconsider the notion.  If you look at the charts from 4/26 you see a few places where we had 2 day churn in a downtrend.  After these churns wore off oversold conditions, they sold off.  If the pattern repeats, then your stop could be the high of the churn, or recommended approach would be to form a channel from the highs and use the channel line as a guideline for covering shorts.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Motive Down Counts

If I don't post, don't think I'm not thinking.

Do you count the top as truncated?  I dont.

Very likely that green 5th is already done.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

The Future of Energy

I am LIVID about these electric cars.  I know America, you think electric cars are awesome, but I intend to illuminate why electric cars are not a solution but a product that could feed off of a solution to fossil fuels.

Cars running on electricity have to get electricity from somewhere.  According to Wiki-answers (not reputable, but good enough for my rant) [http://wiki.answers.com/Q/In_the_us_what_percentage_of_electricity_is_derived_from_fossil_fuels], 71%, that's how much electricity is derived from fossil fuels.  These heat engines have losses in the process and are somewhere around 35% efficient.  So we burn something and get electricity, then we have to transmit it to your car.  Guess what, more losses!  7-8% depending on conditions.  Then there are also losses in the battery and motor.  This compares to an IC engine which is about 20% efficient, though some engines have been tested at over 50%.

So effectively what you do with electric cars, is burn more fossil fuels.  Now this statement, I admit, is not for sure.  You really need to run the numbers, and it is probably different for each individual situation.  But in the long run you can't look at electric cars as a solution.  We know how to make electric motors... this is not a new development.  The batteries need work, but that will come.  What we are in dire need of is a solution to power generation other than burning.

So, for argument's sake, let's assume that electric cars burn more fossil fuels due to losses.  Assuming that, let's run a scenario where gas prices explode to the upside.  The price hike serves as a catalyst to switch to electric/hybrid cars.  The drain on the power grid ups the fuel needed for power generation and due to losses, the total fuel burned increases, draining supply, and puts further upside pressure on fuel prices.

So don't just go into electric cars blindly.  The way I see it, it is yet another corporate con...

This is obviously just a rant, and not extensively researched or proved... there are a lot of things to consider, like what we save on shipping the gas to stations versus shipping fuels to centralized generators.  The scenarios are almost impossible to filter through.  My point really is just to think about it... what looks good at first glance might just have a nice paint-job.

[EDIT]:  Another issue I've been thinking about intra-day is that the grid currently is not ready to handle the extra electricity that would be needed to power all the cars in America.  This extra volume would require more generators and beefier transmission capabilities.  The extra volume could also instigate a less efficient system.

[EDIT]:  Either someone is watching my blog for ideas, or the collective unconscious is toying with me.  This afternoon, after posting this rant, some guy, Lindzon, goes on techticker talking about how Tesla is a stupid idea.  Can a guy get some credit for being pissed off first?

Peak

Fidelity:  Turn here.

If you don't see a peak here, you're asleep... or Helen Keller.

[EDIT]:  The morning looked ugly, rebounded... feeling a little less bearish.  Realistically, I can see one more push higher, but I will stick by my stance that there is a turn here within a few days.  It also depends on what you're watching because they all won't top at exactly the same time.

Monday, July 5, 2010

Minor 3 Continues

Hmm..







Minor 3 likely has more room to run.  If minor 4 terminates in range of 4 lesser degree then we might be sitting in the target zone of a minor four retrace right now.  Watch out for hard 5's.  The flash crash is a recent example of this, but there were other instances of hard 5 waves in the '07-'09 wave.  I do not believe intermediate one will have minor 4-1 overlap and thus am not looking for a large bounce in the short term.  Minor three really needs to go lower in order to give room for a minor 4 retrace.

Monday, June 28, 2010

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Profit Pivot

I'm sticking with the flat idea for right now.  There are definitely other alternatives, but this one appeals to me.  I'm postulating that 3 of C has completed.  I had mentioned 1115 /ES as a spot where a new count would be needed.  Above 1115, 3 is the shortest.  If we clear 1115 without a significant retrace then you have to assume that 3 is more extended than is depicted.  A retrace to near 1080 puts us near the 13day MA and sets up nicely for a five wave to complete the correction.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Bear if you Dare...

I can't buy the bear case here. I've been bullish for a little while, and it's all conforming to the hypothesis so far. I'm going to hold it to it until it doesn't.

The daily ES charts look very strong now. We just got our MACD buy signal, and price is resting on the 13 day MA. I think holding at or over the 13 day MA is a hold for any longs.

My hypothesis is primarily a flat from the 5/25 lows. There is a possibility for a zig-zag, but in the end I think it doesn't change the outcome much. A proper flat should take us above the recent highs around 1100, but would likely push higher into say 1150 or so.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

We'll Leave a Light on For Ya!

Whoever thinks that the moon moves the tides, but doesn't affect capital markets is walking blind. I made a chart of some of the recent action and placed labels for the lunar full and new moons on the daily bar chart. The 'O' is full and '@' is new. Not every occurrence signaled a turn, and they don't have a directional bias, but if a turn materializes near a lunar event, the thing to do would be respect it. Don't take my word for it, go look at it historically.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Full Count and I'm Swinging

So, if you frequent Kenny's then you might have been annoyed by my idiotic bite sized bull moo's. At first I just thought that it was funny as hell, and well, I still do. It's just that now I realize it's in the best interest of all parties for me to at least express my pending rally position.

First, let's start with a swing at the big picture.

First, my preference...



And the viable alternate...



Supporting the concern of a short term trend change, we have the VIX.



The VIX really seems to be a glaring sell on the daily basis. Notice the recurring pattern with the higher highs, but lower highs in the green vertical bars of the MACD. But don't be too bullish, the weekly and monthly are beginning to signal a VIX long term uptrend.

Another interesting look is the indexes on a daily basis.



Notice the recurring pattern again where the blue signal line does a 'double tap' against the yellow line, while the red vertical lines put in higher lows with lower lows in the index prices.

Bottom line, I'm still pretty scared of the size and breadth of the recent decline, but I don't think that wave 2 ever came out completely. It never seemed like people were doubting a downtrend. I'm looking for a wave 2 here and that's a shorting opportunity assuming we don't hit new highs.

Pick a number you say?... OK, so the point of this wave will be to really really really confuse EVERYBODY from counters, to TA's, to Talking Heads... that plus the thought that this might be an expanded flat, which has a powerful C wave, lets me say a number like 11,000 DOW. Sounds crazy huh? I know...

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Quantum Theory and Wave Counts

Okay, I'm not losing my mind I'm just letting it off the leash.

Recently I've been pondering the Multiverse Theory and its implications on Elliott Wave Theory. At first I thought that at any point anything is possible, but after a little contemplation it became obvious that this is not the case. Imagine that your progress through time is like an ant crawling on a tree. You climb the trunk and at some point you decide to venture off onto a branch. Once you get onto that branch you can't get to another branch without leaping from one to the other, which is almost impossible for an ant to do. There are smaller branches off of that branch, but you will always be a part of the larger branch.

So this agrees with Elliott Wave, because when an event happens that forms one of these large branches, the event sets in motion an Elliott Wave that can express itself in many different variations, but the larger branch will ultimately be expressed.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Not a Triangle

This is really just a placeholder so I can link this picture...

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

IRREGULAR 2!!!

OK, so this carries a lot less conviction than some calls...


A lot of my concerns come from a play off of channel lines not only in price, but RSI also.


The rest of what I'm thinking, I'm going to keep in my back pocket.

Saturday, May 1, 2010

What Everybody's Talking About...

So I'm going to post my thoughts on the waves that are rolling in, and no not the waves filled with oil hitting my precious gulf coast (there goes the post graduation vacation... although the Florida springs are better than the beach in some respects, plug for Ginnie Springs!).

I told you I couldn't wait to see... this is what I saw.



Here's a close-up of what I'm looking at for the past couple of days.



When you look at what happened on the 30th it's a little tough to say what has transpired. I've heard a 1-2 1-2, which sounds just fine to me. That would place us near a 3 of 3 of 3 situation which would rocket to the downside and be a nice little Birthday Present for me... that's right, May 3rd... presents appreciated.

Regardless of the squiggle count from the 30th, I would say that chances are excellent that we exceed the low from the 28th. I'm not ruling out an ABC correction as you can see.

Here are some charts that show the extreme bullishness, and the ever increasing possibility of declining index values.





On a lighter note...

This is why it will take months to close BP's leaking oil well.



But that's OK, there will be new jobs created studying gorilla's.

Friday, April 9, 2010

Can't wait to see!

I've been waiting to get the bigger picture before I come out with another wave count. Have blue 1 as a leading diagonal. The blue 2 looks to be a 3-3-5 flat. It goes irregular in the S&P. But enough talk, look at the picture.



This is a work in progress and is subject to change.

I also made an alternate count, which doesn't look that bad, but doesn't have much room for 2 wave to run. You'll be able to tell if this is the case soon. If we make new highs, then this count is invalidated. The more I look at the alternate, the more I like it. The main reason I like the alternate is that the wave inside blue C on the 31st looks more like a 3 than an impulse. This wave can be impulsive if you put the top around 10:30 on the 31st.



Alright, one last alternate.



Really not sure which one takes the cake... it's sort of a wait and see situation.