Thursday, December 8, 2011

The EU Summit Leaked...

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Triangle? What Triangle?


Dear God, it has driven me to madness... this drivel about triangles... WHO STILL SEES A TRIANGLE!?!? 

You can see that the S&P futures broke below the 1208.5 low, which proves that the corrective move is done.  You can see it was actually a simple ABC correction that just happened to be constrained by support and resistance that led to the belief that it might be a triangle, which of course could be extrapolated into all kinds of bullish formations.  BUT IT WASN'T!

When you look at other indices it is even more obvious.  The Dow futures never really looked like a triangle, but that never stopped the madness.

In my opinion, it was all a flat.  Maybe if "C" truncated you could say 1-2 1-2...
STOP THE MADNESS!  You look dumb.

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Oops

So, in my haste I seem to have overlooked that 3 is shorter than 1, which if we're playing by the rules means that 5 must be shorter than 3.  This could mean a truncation is in order, but the top for the count to remain valid must be put in at a value less than 83.25 + (4 wave low) [basis /es].  Somewhere around 1400 might end up being the resistance point, but it's any one's guess.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Maintaining the Relevance

I haven't been posting because I haven't been nearly as active in the past weeks.  Some of that is personal; I'm getting ready to start a new job and needed to pull money to start that process and won't be trading actively until I settle into that new role.  Some of it is also a function of the market.  From my view 1440 might be a ceiling and fifth waves aren't the type of wave that you want to be trying to make big moves in. 
1370 popped up and proved to be resistance, but it's probably got further to go.  I'd seriously consider ending diagonal for the S&P, we've seen waves end in diagonals over and over since March '09 and I for one am expecting that to materialize again.  You can project your own 4 wave bottom by connecting the start of 1 to the bottom of 2 and projecting that out into time. 
I just want to touch base with whoever is keeping in touch with my base and let you know that I'm generally out of any positions and waiting for a top near 1440 to re-enter into a short position.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Where She Stops, Nobody Knows

[Disclaimer]:  This post has more words than most of my posts.  This is where I get into trouble.  I'm very visual and I think I probably communicate better visually, which is great for trading and elliott wave because it's all in the chart, but it's hard to chart politics and narrative, hence the disclaimer, people get real touchy about the politics.

I said I would take a wait and see approach to the top of this wave, but that is well... it's irresponsible is what it is, and it's really not true.  I had a zone in mind, I was simply keeping it close to me.  I have a love hate relationship with this blog.  I keep it as a history of my thoughts on the market, so that I can prove my reasonings post trade, but I don't necessarily gain anything from it so it's hard to justify telling all.  Not that I know all, I would just like to avoid being a target of some fat pocket hedge-fund looking to fade someone's trade.

So, that said, targets are good.  They give you just what the word implies, a target to aim at, to shoot against.  Without a target you are just blindly shooting, with a target you can build strategies.  Where is the target?  Nobody knows.  We can only guess.  Some guesses are better than others, because they really aren't guesses, because a guess implies a certain element of random choice.  Targets are anything but random.  You can come to a target many different ways, there is no right answer, but there is a wrong answer, and that wrong answer is not having a target.


If you've skimmed through or skipped the fluff, the bands above show where I'm looking for this 5th to terminate.  Somewhere between 1370 and 1440.  Ideally I would like to see an either or and not somewhere in-between the two.  There really aren't strong points of resistance between them.

In terms of Time, I would first suspect that this summer from May to July is when I'll be on high alert for meaningful trend change.  If everything looks good, or something develops my next choice would be sometime in the first half of 2012.  Based on the wave-structure I see today, I would lean toward this summer. 

Politically, I think QE3 is a hard sell with the rest of the world raising rates.  If they do push for a QE3, look for the "assured destruction" rhetoric similar to the way congress complained the original 700billion bailout was sold as the only option to stop a world collapse.  Even without a state sanctioned program, I would be suspect of the Fed turning off their programs.  They've hired the staff, and when government creates a position, it seems to be hard to remove it.

Possible Big Picture:
1)QE3 never materializes.
2)Market falls going into 2012 elections
3)Market collapse is handled politically much like the Iraq war, and we vote for Obama because we fear that changing presidents risks an already delicate situation.  I think a lot of the republican moaning about the debt situation is a clue that we won't have a consensus in congress allowing QE3.  This republican move will be blamed for triggering a new leg down, and ensure a democratic win in 2012. 
4)After bringing the market just below the previous 666 lows, the inflation machine kicks back in, catches a real economy that will be putting in a base and we start another great bull leg.

Prechter's flat count from the 2000 highs really doesn't hold water anymore.  The scale is not looking correct.  What's more likely is some type of ABCDE triangle much like the 70's.  Obviously my optimism is a function of where the market currently sits.  I'll probably be screaming bloody murder at 600, but we are all victims of the emotions.

There was a zerohedge piece earlier on why not hyper-inflation, which I completely agree with, I had even said the same line of thinking in some comments previously.  But I would imagine that it's not massive deflation either.  It would be more sensible to have one more moderate bout of deflation and then allow a slow boil inflation to resume.  The thinking is that there would be no hyper-inflation because then all the debt becomes worthless, and you could pay your mortgage on a month's pay.  But massive deflation risks the entire system where money would be worthless, and that probably would not benefit the elites.  Basically it's the 70's all over again.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Chart Art



Wednesday, April 13, 2011

One


Silence is also speech.  ~Proverb

It's like I said earlier, the local peak we saw was what I would call one of five.  I'm being brief because there's not much to say, and there's no point posting everyday about the same themes that hopefully you can track yourself.  Some people might like for the top to be in, but especially with the way it's being sold in the media, I would be extremely skeptical.  "How to play the sell-off?"  I don't know, maybe buy it?  TNA comes to mind...

Anyway, since I have nothing to say, why don't we all just sit back and learn to cook.  My good friend and culinary connoisseur, Dick Booze, has done it again with his jam up job showing us how to do Spanish Tapas the right way.



Monday, April 4, 2011

Monday, March 28, 2011

I Caught the Knife, Now I Just Keep Stabbing

  Sort of changing the count from when I took a stab at it a few days ago.  The pivots stayed the same, the labels just rotated.  Speaking of rotation, I wouldn't worry too much if your horse takes a hit, or has taken a hit.  The fear seems to have left the building.  For this count to remain valid, that i level at 1296.5 can't be violated.  I'd look for 1300 to hold.  There is horizontal resistance at 1300, and it's a round number that's sure to bring out some buyers. 
  In all honesty, I'm not sure what levels to expect for this fifth wave, I'm sure someone else would be willing to throw out a number, but I don't see the point.  I feel like it will show itself as we get closer, so there's no point sticking my neck out.  Another thing to consider, which I hope people understand, is that I don't label in the traditional way that Daneric and EWI label.  I still recognize degrees and they are extremely important, I just choose not to because my charts are usually short-term and there is no need to worry about correct degrees.  I'm more concerned with readability than conforming to the degree structure.  So for instance, in the chart above, when yellow 5 ends, some may think I imply that's the end of the fifth wave, but my view is actually that yellow 5 would be 1 of minor 5.  I guess I could obsess over the degrees and have them all look so pretty, but what would be the fun in that?
  We've been moving in 20's on the futures, so if 1300 holds, 1320 is the next spot to look for resistance.

Friday, March 25, 2011

Kwestion of the Week

Where did the Libyan rebels get all this hardware?  They're running around with 50 caliber heavy machine guns mounted to trucks, RPG's in trunks, AK's AK's AK's, and what is this?  Is that a mounted anti-aircraft gun?  What the hell?  Nobody seems to think anything of it either.  I guess some of them are defected military, but they've got an arsenal the NRA would be jealous of.  I guess this was building over time and the people made preparations to bring in weapons, but it's not like they have a weapon superstore down the street where they can pick these things up.  Somebody supplied this war is the obvious answer. 

The market?  It's going up, duh!  Remember... winning?

Thursday, March 24, 2011

It's Still Rock N' Roll To Me





All the short term downward trend-lines are broken, and the upward trend-lines are accelerating.  Until we see a change of character, prices will continue to advance.  I think we're starting to see the more dogmatic of the bears covering.  Imagine going short near the 1250 lows and then imagine what you would be thinking holding rotting puts.  The bulls continue to herd the masses into equities.  Look at NFLX and friends... the energizer bunnies have got gas.  You can't afford to fight the tape here with the prospect of a fifth wave.  Possibly a trend ending fifth wave, so a blow off move is not out of the kwestion.  Maybe holding a few unleveraged shorts pay off in a few years, but let's push it to the limit.

Make Me Breakout

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Taking A Stab


Everything's up in the air, but this is kind of what I'm looking at.  The other indexes look a little different, but if this really is a fifth wave from the July lows, then it should be fairly large and the wave structure really shouldn't be clear at this point.  We'll see what happens going forward.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Caution is Warranted

The bounce off the lows is looking reticent at the moment.  The many red daily bars are what worries me the most, but prices are advancing despite the intra-day selling.  This character could indicate a correction within a down trend, or it could be characteristic of a fifth wave.  We should be cautious as we finish out the week.  If the bears will make a move, they will do it from these levels.  I'm pretty comfortable saying the action today and yesterday is corrective.  We seem to be in a pattern of holding levels and then taking the ramp overnight.  I'm not going to recommend action at this time, other than to pay attention and prepare stops.

I think this caution is what we're seeing in the market.  Maybe a case of the tail wagging the dog.  If we can break 1300 and hold, I think you'll see a lot of scared money coming in and shorts covering.  That same logic goes the other way though, if we break down and break the 1250 lows we would likely see long-term bullish positions being liquidated.

Friday, March 18, 2011

The Weekend is Coming! The Weekend is Coming!


Have a good weekend guys!

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

"We're Goin To War Boys!"

When the gates open up in the morning and you're staring death in the face, the machine guns are blasting over your head, they're telling you the world is ending today when japan melts into the center of the earth causing a black hole to swing out of equilibrium, remember the words of our great president FDR, "There is nothing to fear but fear itself."

Say it with me, "I AM NOT AFRAID!"

They're making plans now for the assault...


Japan might end up being a great buy out of this mess. Obviously the damages in Japan equate to a reduction in the value of the underlying companies, but the stock action will likely overshoot to the downside, after which they will sharply recover in a similar fashion to what happened with US markets during the flash crash.

There's no reason these levels can't hold and rally on into these fifth wave mega retard highs.  Not saying they make sense or will persist, but it's not chasing if you win.  The chasers just got creamed last month, and if it turns they'll probably be buyers at 1300.

So we're buying... what to buy?  I don't usually bump a stock, but I have to go with the home town hero, Synovus, ticker SNV.  It has been sitting on its 200 day moving average for a little while, off the bottom of the daily bands.  There is a strong resistance band from $2.36-$2.5, and I would be a buyer within that range on the day, assuming we don't plummet through 1250 /ES.  I see the stock at $3.00 by the end of next month assuming that this rally takes place.  This is a trade that could turn into an investment, but I would just cash it out and move along.  We can always come back.


Don't mistake my bias for being blind to the bearish count.  I made a point to highlight a possible contracting wave from the lows last year, but it was my belief then, and (hanging by a thread) I still believe we can hold these levels.  Should we collapse, OK, I was holding short, and I'd look to 1180-1220 to hold... but we've got to detach from the media barrage and look for value.  Japan got nuked in WWII, and they came back from that... we've seen meltdowns before, and though they are not pretty, they are manageable.  This will take time for all parties involved, especially the Japanese people, but from the fire of the crucible will emerge the strongest elements.  All my prayers go out to the people of Japan, this is a terrible ordeal that I would wish on no one.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Are we there yet? Are we there yet?


Cash made a new low, but futures might have a date with that 1278.5 level.








Possibly channeling down for a fifth wave.  Expect overthrow from this type of formation, which would serve as a trap for new shorts and a shakeout for weak longs.


Proposed 4th of 5 alternates with the 4th of larger degree in that the previous ABCDE was contracting, where this formation is expanding.

Risk reward is beginning to skew to the upside players in my mind.  Wouldn't initiate shorts here, unless that's your style.  Possibly a lower open but that's likely quickly bought.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Steal This Count

In line with the previous minis count, here's how I make today corrective.  I think a lot of people cried uncle when everyone else covered before the weekend.  I think people are preparing for another run-up, but one more low could be in the cards.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

WooHoo!

Ok, enough celebrating, don't want a penalty in the end-zone.  Assuming that this is just a hiccup in an uptrend, we need to start looking for a bottom.  Nothing saying bottom to me here.  VIX has a magnet that will suck it into the top of the daily bands.  Watch the $cpce for an extreme reading. 

I made a little /ES count, but it's more of a guideline than a rule.  I think the gap represents a third wave and we're likely going to see some 4's and 5's that should be bought.  The Pomo schedule seems like a hint, and we might well decline into the resumption on the 15th of March, but it might get front-run.  The key here is that until proven otherwise, this is still corrective.


I'd like to think I've learned a few lessons in the market, and one would be to not be so attached to your counts, so I merely speculate at the current structure, while I am much more confident in the A-B notation.  We could see these counts expand into any number of possibilities.

Can you smell it?

Confirming the weakness we've been feeling.  This is third wave, so if this confirms, don't expect big retraces.  Maybe we chop after the open and drop after we run out of buyers.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Still Waiting


Don't worry Mr. Petty, one way or another, I have a feeling we won't be waiting for too much longer.  For all the up, downs, back and forth, nothing really has changed.  You could just feel the emotion today when the S&P caught a bid and were pushing 1323 around noon.  It felt like the breakout, was it the fake-out?  Waiting...

Monday, March 7, 2011

Something to Consider

I think the last time we saw a level similar besides April '10 was in March of '04.  Take your pick. 

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Dry analysis

Hopefully my rants don't scare whoever reads me away, but everybody loves a little drama and conflict right?

Anyway, some simple charts...

 BPSPX is plateauing after the quick drop.  At this point the BPSPX is losing its predictive value because it has already topped.  If you think BPSPX is going to rally up to beat the recent highs soon, then make me a side bet!  I'm sure I can cover any potential losses there.  I really want to see the RSI dip below that 30 line before I'm convinced the correction is over.  I mean it's already there, just finish it.

  

 Put call is trending up.  We've seen it before, when the bottom right green line hits the cpce wall that'll be confirmation that it's rally time and I say confirmation, because the price will probably scare you into the trade before the EOD CPCE print has a chance to make a difference with your execution.


The OEX here just to show the general 'character' of the market.  My big gripe is that it's below the middle of the bands, whenever the market moves lower, it almost always exhibits this characteristic of chopping below the middle of the band and then breaking the recent low.  There is that one spot in December of 2009 where we broke the middle of the band and didn't chop and descend, but it also didn't have the big bars up and down and it was obviously correcting above the middle of the band before it got there.  There is also that November of 2010 area where we chopped under the middle of the band and then just barely broke the low.  That is definitely a possibility.  It's very possible we blow straight up to the moon from here, but I doubt it.  You can see I acknowledge that with the trend-line from the Sept. Low to the Dec. Low.

There has been A LOT of back and forth with everybody who is supposed to be "calling" this market.  That is the psychological character of a B wave or a 2 wave.  I'm not saying I've got it locked in, just noticing the indecision from everyone.  I think the buyers here are still energized from the run-up, but aren't taking into account things like the BPSPX falling from highs.  I will agree that there will likely be some divergence between the BPSPX and the market.  I do see more room to run, but I don't want to buy here.

All in all, yeah you know, I'm shooting my mouth off and we are right here near the highs, it's do or die time for both sides of the trade, it's just a matter of seeing it through.  If it runs against me into key levels, I'll switch.  But it just looks too sweet for me to let go.  Anyway, I'm sure I have said too much today!

Grow some Algae!

I think I have done enough dry market analysis to warrant some almost baseless rhetoric.  Which brings me to the point to end all points.  The point the TV just can't let go because the pointers want it looked at, but only temporarily.  What's the point?  I ask myself the same kwestion, but no, it's OIL!

I hear Warren Buffet talking about this "system" that America created which is driving our growth and economic power, and he says the emerging markets are now unleashing their potential.  I say the "system" is nothing more than a code for OIL and cheap labor that oil provides.  Our entire economy is based on it, which is why higher oil prices are seen as a market negative.

Who is to blame for the blinders on our eyes?  A lot of people is the short answer, the real answer is probably hard to imagine and impossible to prove.  I think that it has a lot to do with generations and the fact that people live and die.  I remember talking with an engineer in Pennsylvania about the oil problem, at the time oil was hitting $150.  And his response was that he didn't care because he would die before the problem blew up.  I think that statement and mentality is a microcosm for the whole problem.  My grandparents parents started oil and it was good, then generation after generation they laid down their prayer rugs in homage to the oil gods.  The oil put food on the table, and that's all there is to it.  This mentality breeds among the people like a virus, but the virus could end up killing the host.

I'm not saying we run out of oil tomorrow, or even in the next 10 years, but oil's availability is undoubtedly heading lower.  The real kwestion here is what will we do after oil and what are we doing now to get there.  I think the short answer is no one cares.  The long answer so far is that, there will be a giant disaster due to oil suddenly "vanishing".  Corporate structure and political structure is unforgiving to dissenting views and the old players are at the top.  They've been told since the 70's that this ride would ultimately be unsustainable and their arrogance has showed. 

My hope is that in some secret government lab, they have a new age of energy sources waiting to be unveiled like a new TV, 1/2 an inch thinner than the last.

My worry is that there is a plan for the end of oil, but it has nothing to do with a replacement.  I worry that oil is to become a Pearl Harbor and a rallying cry for the same idiots who thought moving into Iraq for WMD's that weren't there was a good idea.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Eh Taters!?

I would post a count, but someone would just come on over here and steal it... either that or it'd just jinx the trade.  At least when I talk like this, you have to be an intelligent Elliott Wave practitioner to use it.

I think there are two scenarios for a down move; grinding lower, and plummeting lower.  Grinding would suggest the 1260-75 range, and plummeting would suggest 1200.  The plummeting could start off grinding, so...

see ya tomorrow!

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Dear amphetamine bloggers

The waiting is the hardest part.  I see these counts changing daily as if all waves complete in 2 day time frames.  I believe fairly firmly, reaffirmed after today that this correction is still ongoing and while 1260 is at the bottom of the first target range, I still like that zone as a target.  If we're going to repeat the April fractal word for word then we bounce tomorrow, but I have my doubts of that period repeating.  Down week this week.  Friday at the lows.

Monday, February 28, 2011

#'s $'s

1320 critical, next 1308.5

Tomorrow Critical.  Time and Price, Don't get sucked into the second by second.  Fractals, Scale, Degree.  Trendlines and Channels.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

The setup

[9:18] 1314?

This look ominous out there.  Not worried about the VIX anymore.  This downdraft is showing some real strength.  As it goes, I see 1200 more likely than 1260, but I'm as fickle as a pickle.  I'm ready to short the shit out of it now, this is fear and as long as we stay below the 20 on the 4 hour scale, I say it runs.  We might rally a little off the open, but it's probably just a head fake.  We have broken out of sub-wave scale, and there is relatively little chance that we bounce off these levels to new highs.  A lot of things are threatening to cross, a GIANT drop would not surprise me.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

The waiting is the hardest part

[6:30] Did I mention that the waiting is the hardest part?  LOL, see you tomorrow!

[5:45] Starting to think this might just break on through to the other side... The VIX pulled back and closed a little above the bands, which to me says it might have what it takes to keep riding the bands higher...

Tom Petty was on to something when he said, "The waiting is the hardest part."  So here I am waiting.  Yeah I cashed out early, do I regret it?  Maybe a little, but I know that decisions like the one I made are what keeps you from losing the profits you like today when we gap tomorrow.  The VIX is stupid high right here, outside the daily bands by a good grip.  I think I remember saying a while ago around 18 or 17 that VIX was a steal... this is what I was getting at.  When the VIX comes back in to maybe the middle of the daily bands, I'll be ready to short the shit out of the market.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Solar Flares, Full Moons, and Skeptics, OH MY!

Naysayers were sent with their tails between their legs today.  Last week it was all elliott smelliott wave, full moon? yawn!, Solar flares?  Stick it up Uranus.  Now it's quiet which is nice because I think the world heard me ring the register on my puts today.  I don't think it's done, but I think a retrace is very possible.  If we open up tomorrow flat to down, or just resume the down-trend, I'll probably have a trigger in place, but we're sitting on the middle of the band in so many names, the put-call ratio is pretty high... that's not necessarily a sign of the end of a down move, but I had profits, so I took them.  Just throwing out possible targets... first is around 1260 in the range of the 4 wave.  The next big one is the 1200 area.  At this point, I still believe the dip is a buying opportunity, so I'm leaning toward the 1260 area, that'd be the middle of the weekly bands.  Not much solid stuff to say now, maybe I'll take a stab at counting this down move once I get a better handle on it, gotta see more before I can label with confidence.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

For the Love of Squiggles

Wow, sometimes I surprise myself.  I woke up this morning amazed that ES bounced off 1310, then after the open the low was only 1.5 from my number... eerily close.  They probably just want me to think I know what I'm doing and then pull the rug out from under me :).  So here's how I make sense of today's action.  The triangle seems pretty obvious to me.  Broke out and the two wave almost violated the low, but stayed above in futures and cash.  Some of the other indexes violate where I have yellow 2... ehh... maybe we're in complex correction and this 4 wave isn't over.  If that's the case, I would expect the correction to stay within the recent lows and highs... maybe trace out a larger triangle, but honestly, who knows?

[edit: 4:51] or duh, maybe yellow 2 isn't over...

Burning the Midnight Oil

If Futures keep falling into the open, I'm thinking they might catch a bid at A=C around 1310.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Insert Witty Title Here

This formation has been staring me in the face for months, and with the trend-lines converging, it might be nearing termination.  Probably prudent to wait and see if it throws over the channel lines before reversing.  If this count is incorrect, my next alternate is that where I have marked 3 and 4 are actually 1 and 2 a degree lower, and 3 is completing, not the entire wave.  In that case we would still have some correction for a 4 wave, but alternation suggests it would be flat.  The BPSPX recently made a blow off move, a reversal in BPSPX from this level is probably the real deal.  Waiting to see the EOD print on BPSPX and CPCE. 

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Bullish Sentiment Cracking

The recent drop off seems to suggest a larger wave.  There is every reason to expect a retrace in the beginning of the week, but I think the play is to short a touch of the top of the daily bollinger bands.  The party won't last forever though.  This dip is most likely a buying opportunity.