Hopefully my rants don't scare whoever reads me away, but everybody loves a little drama and conflict right?
Anyway, some simple charts...
Anyway, some simple charts...
BPSPX is plateauing after the quick drop. At this point the BPSPX is losing its predictive value because it has already topped. If you think BPSPX is going to rally up to beat the recent highs soon, then make me a side bet! I'm sure I can cover any potential losses there. I really want to see the RSI dip below that 30 line before I'm convinced the correction is over. I mean it's already there, just finish it.
Put call is trending up. We've seen it before, when the bottom right green line hits the cpce wall that'll be confirmation that it's rally time and I say confirmation, because the price will probably scare you into the trade before the EOD CPCE print has a chance to make a difference with your execution.
The OEX here just to show the general 'character' of the market. My big gripe is that it's below the middle of the bands, whenever the market moves lower, it almost always exhibits this characteristic of chopping below the middle of the band and then breaking the recent low. There is that one spot in December of 2009 where we broke the middle of the band and didn't chop and descend, but it also didn't have the big bars up and down and it was obviously correcting above the middle of the band before it got there. There is also that November of 2010 area where we chopped under the middle of the band and then just barely broke the low. That is definitely a possibility. It's very possible we blow straight up to the moon from here, but I doubt it. You can see I acknowledge that with the trend-line from the Sept. Low to the Dec. Low.
There has been A LOT of back and forth with everybody who is supposed to be "calling" this market. That is the psychological character of a B wave or a 2 wave. I'm not saying I've got it locked in, just noticing the indecision from everyone. I think the buyers here are still energized from the run-up, but aren't taking into account things like the BPSPX falling from highs. I will agree that there will likely be some divergence between the BPSPX and the market. I do see more room to run, but I don't want to buy here.
All in all, yeah you know, I'm shooting my mouth off and we are right here near the highs, it's do or die time for both sides of the trade, it's just a matter of seeing it through. If it runs against me into key levels, I'll switch. But it just looks too sweet for me to let go. Anyway, I'm sure I have said too much today!