Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Caution is Warranted

The bounce off the lows is looking reticent at the moment.  The many red daily bars are what worries me the most, but prices are advancing despite the intra-day selling.  This character could indicate a correction within a down trend, or it could be characteristic of a fifth wave.  We should be cautious as we finish out the week.  If the bears will make a move, they will do it from these levels.  I'm pretty comfortable saying the action today and yesterday is corrective.  We seem to be in a pattern of holding levels and then taking the ramp overnight.  I'm not going to recommend action at this time, other than to pay attention and prepare stops.

I think this caution is what we're seeing in the market.  Maybe a case of the tail wagging the dog.  If we can break 1300 and hold, I think you'll see a lot of scared money coming in and shorts covering.  That same logic goes the other way though, if we break down and break the 1250 lows we would likely see long-term bullish positions being liquidated.
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