Tuesday, March 15, 2011

"We're Goin To War Boys!"

When the gates open up in the morning and you're staring death in the face, the machine guns are blasting over your head, they're telling you the world is ending today when japan melts into the center of the earth causing a black hole to swing out of equilibrium, remember the words of our great president FDR, "There is nothing to fear but fear itself."

Say it with me, "I AM NOT AFRAID!"

They're making plans now for the assault...


Japan might end up being a great buy out of this mess. Obviously the damages in Japan equate to a reduction in the value of the underlying companies, but the stock action will likely overshoot to the downside, after which they will sharply recover in a similar fashion to what happened with US markets during the flash crash.

There's no reason these levels can't hold and rally on into these fifth wave mega retard highs.  Not saying they make sense or will persist, but it's not chasing if you win.  The chasers just got creamed last month, and if it turns they'll probably be buyers at 1300.

So we're buying... what to buy?  I don't usually bump a stock, but I have to go with the home town hero, Synovus, ticker SNV.  It has been sitting on its 200 day moving average for a little while, off the bottom of the daily bands.  There is a strong resistance band from $2.36-$2.5, and I would be a buyer within that range on the day, assuming we don't plummet through 1250 /ES.  I see the stock at $3.00 by the end of next month assuming that this rally takes place.  This is a trade that could turn into an investment, but I would just cash it out and move along.  We can always come back.


Don't mistake my bias for being blind to the bearish count.  I made a point to highlight a possible contracting wave from the lows last year, but it was my belief then, and (hanging by a thread) I still believe we can hold these levels.  Should we collapse, OK, I was holding short, and I'd look to 1180-1220 to hold... but we've got to detach from the media barrage and look for value.  Japan got nuked in WWII, and they came back from that... we've seen meltdowns before, and though they are not pretty, they are manageable.  This will take time for all parties involved, especially the Japanese people, but from the fire of the crucible will emerge the strongest elements.  All my prayers go out to the people of Japan, this is a terrible ordeal that I would wish on no one.
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