Wednesday, January 2, 2013


I'll admit the past few days have been a surprise, but this extreme move is hard to trust.  I'm not able to check charts now but I believe we gapped into the upper daily band and moved above it to close.  It's hard to imagine this move doesn't retrace significantly, perhaps the middle of the band.

Gap.. to crap?

Crazy gap, does it crap?  At least closes on the day I say... no way?  OK.

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Bullish Count


Any deal is market positive in my opinion.  I tend to agree with republicans that in order to reduce the debt, spending cuts are the only solution.  It would seem that the path we are on involves a default or an attempt to inflate away the debt.  After all, do we really have the balls to fire government employees and terminate government contracts?  We already have a weak economy, imagine one without cushy government jobs.  Just imagine...

Should we get a deal tomorrow, the above count is how I see it.  There's some fancy dancy math to guestimate a region for a top which is somewhere between 1467 and 1546.  The top limit is based on the rule that the "third wave" can't bee the shortest in an impulse.  I have this counted correctively as a-b-c-d-e, but it's the same form as ending diagonal.  The bottom limit of 1467 is taken from the observation that the ratio of 206/351 is close to the fib .618 so multiplying 206 by .618 and adding to the local low at 1340 gives us the limit 1467.  I would say we hit this "e" target in the first quarter, maybe January or February.