Monday, February 28, 2011

#'s $'s

1320 critical, next 1308.5

Tomorrow Critical.  Time and Price, Don't get sucked into the second by second.  Fractals, Scale, Degree.  Trendlines and Channels.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

The setup

[9:18] 1314?

This look ominous out there.  Not worried about the VIX anymore.  This downdraft is showing some real strength.  As it goes, I see 1200 more likely than 1260, but I'm as fickle as a pickle.  I'm ready to short the shit out of it now, this is fear and as long as we stay below the 20 on the 4 hour scale, I say it runs.  We might rally a little off the open, but it's probably just a head fake.  We have broken out of sub-wave scale, and there is relatively little chance that we bounce off these levels to new highs.  A lot of things are threatening to cross, a GIANT drop would not surprise me.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

The waiting is the hardest part

[6:30] Did I mention that the waiting is the hardest part?  LOL, see you tomorrow!

[5:45] Starting to think this might just break on through to the other side... The VIX pulled back and closed a little above the bands, which to me says it might have what it takes to keep riding the bands higher...

Tom Petty was on to something when he said, "The waiting is the hardest part."  So here I am waiting.  Yeah I cashed out early, do I regret it?  Maybe a little, but I know that decisions like the one I made are what keeps you from losing the profits you like today when we gap tomorrow.  The VIX is stupid high right here, outside the daily bands by a good grip.  I think I remember saying a while ago around 18 or 17 that VIX was a steal... this is what I was getting at.  When the VIX comes back in to maybe the middle of the daily bands, I'll be ready to short the shit out of the market.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Solar Flares, Full Moons, and Skeptics, OH MY!

Naysayers were sent with their tails between their legs today.  Last week it was all elliott smelliott wave, full moon? yawn!, Solar flares?  Stick it up Uranus.  Now it's quiet which is nice because I think the world heard me ring the register on my puts today.  I don't think it's done, but I think a retrace is very possible.  If we open up tomorrow flat to down, or just resume the down-trend, I'll probably have a trigger in place, but we're sitting on the middle of the band in so many names, the put-call ratio is pretty high... that's not necessarily a sign of the end of a down move, but I had profits, so I took them.  Just throwing out possible targets... first is around 1260 in the range of the 4 wave.  The next big one is the 1200 area.  At this point, I still believe the dip is a buying opportunity, so I'm leaning toward the 1260 area, that'd be the middle of the weekly bands.  Not much solid stuff to say now, maybe I'll take a stab at counting this down move once I get a better handle on it, gotta see more before I can label with confidence.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

For the Love of Squiggles

Wow, sometimes I surprise myself.  I woke up this morning amazed that ES bounced off 1310, then after the open the low was only 1.5 from my number... eerily close.  They probably just want me to think I know what I'm doing and then pull the rug out from under me :).  So here's how I make sense of today's action.  The triangle seems pretty obvious to me.  Broke out and the two wave almost violated the low, but stayed above in futures and cash.  Some of the other indexes violate where I have yellow 2... ehh... maybe we're in complex correction and this 4 wave isn't over.  If that's the case, I would expect the correction to stay within the recent lows and highs... maybe trace out a larger triangle, but honestly, who knows?

[edit: 4:51] or duh, maybe yellow 2 isn't over...

Burning the Midnight Oil

If Futures keep falling into the open, I'm thinking they might catch a bid at A=C around 1310.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Insert Witty Title Here

This formation has been staring me in the face for months, and with the trend-lines converging, it might be nearing termination.  Probably prudent to wait and see if it throws over the channel lines before reversing.  If this count is incorrect, my next alternate is that where I have marked 3 and 4 are actually 1 and 2 a degree lower, and 3 is completing, not the entire wave.  In that case we would still have some correction for a 4 wave, but alternation suggests it would be flat.  The BPSPX recently made a blow off move, a reversal in BPSPX from this level is probably the real deal.  Waiting to see the EOD print on BPSPX and CPCE.