First, let's start with a swing at the big picture.
First, my preference...
And the viable alternate...
Supporting the concern of a short term trend change, we have the VIX.
The VIX really seems to be a glaring sell on the daily basis. Notice the recurring pattern with the higher highs, but lower highs in the green vertical bars of the MACD. But don't be too bullish, the weekly and monthly are beginning to signal a VIX long term uptrend.
Another interesting look is the indexes on a daily basis.
Notice the recurring pattern again where the blue signal line does a 'double tap' against the yellow line, while the red vertical lines put in higher lows with lower lows in the index prices.
Bottom line, I'm still pretty scared of the size and breadth of the recent decline, but I don't think that wave 2 ever came out completely. It never seemed like people were doubting a downtrend. I'm looking for a wave 2 here and that's a shorting opportunity assuming we don't hit new highs.
Pick a number you say?... OK, so the point of this wave will be to really really really confuse EVERYBODY from counters, to TA's, to Talking Heads... that plus the thought that this might be an expanded flat, which has a powerful C wave, lets me say a number like 11,000 DOW. Sounds crazy huh? I know...