Can you smell it?

Confirming the weakness we've been feeling.  This is third wave, so if this confirms, don't expect big retraces.  Maybe we chop after the open and drop after we run out of buyers.

Still Waiting

Don't worry Mr. Petty, one way or another, I have a feeling we won't be waiting for too much longer.  For all the up, downs, back and forth, nothing really has changed.  You could just feel the emotion today when the S&P caught a bid and were pushing 1323 around noon.  It felt like the breakout, was it the fake-out?  Waiting...

Something to Consider

I think the last time we saw a level similar besides April '10 was in March of '04.  Take your pick. 

Dry analysis

Hopefully my rants don't scare whoever reads me away, but everybody loves a little drama and conflict right?

Anyway, some simple charts...

 

 BPSPX is plateauing after the quick drop.  At this point the BPSPX is losing its predictive value because it has already topped.  If you think BPSPX is going to rally up to beat the recent highs soon, then make me a side bet!  I'm sure I can cover any potential losses there.  I really want to see the RSI dip below that 30 line before I'm convinced the correction is over.  I mean it's already there, just finish it.

  

 Put call is trending up.  We've seen it before, when the bottom right green line hits the cpce wall that'll be confirmation that it's rally time and I say confirmation, because the price will probably scare you into the trade before the EOD CPCE print has a chance to make a difference with your execution.

The OEX here just to show the general 'character' of the market.  My big gripe is that it's below the middle of the bands, whenever the market moves lower, it almost always exhibits this characteristic of chopping below the middle of the band and then breaking the recent low.  There is that one spot in December of 2009 where we broke the middle of the band and didn't chop and descend, but it also didn't have the big bars up and down and it was obviously correcting above the middle of the band before it got there.  There is also that November of 2010 area where we chopped under the middle of the band and then just barely broke the low.  That is definitely a possibility.  It's very possible we blow straight up to the moon from here, but I doubt it.  You can see I acknowledge that with the trend-line from the Sept. Low to the Dec. Low.

There has been A LOT of back and forth with everybody who is supposed to be "calling" this market.  That is the psychological character of a B wave or a 2 wave.  I'm not saying I've got it locked in, just noticing the indecision from everyone.  I think the buyers here are still energized from the run-up, but aren't taking into account things like the BPSPX falling from highs.  I will agree that there will likely be some divergence between the BPSPX and the market.  I do see more room to run, but I don't want to buy here.

All in all, yeah you know, I'm shooting my mouth off and we are right here near the highs, it's do or die time for both sides of the trade, it's just a matter of seeing it through.  If it runs against me into key levels, I'll switch.  But it just looks too sweet for me to let go.  Anyway, I'm sure I have said too much today!

Grow some Algae!

I think I have done enough dry market analysis to warrant some almost baseless rhetoric.  Which brings me to the point to end all points.  The point the TV just can't let go because the pointers want it looked at, but only temporarily.  What's the point?  I ask myself the same kwestion, but no, it's OIL!

I hear Warren Buffet talking about this "system" that America created which is driving our growth and economic power, and he says the emerging markets are now unleashing their potential.  I say the "system" is nothing more than a code for OIL and cheap labor that oil provides.  Our entire economy is based on it, which is why higher oil prices are seen as a market negative.

Who is to blame for the blinders on our eyes?  A lot of people is the short answer, the real answer is probably hard to imagine and impossible to prove.  I think that it has a lot to do with generations and the fact that people live and die.  I remember talking with an engineer in Pennsylvania about the oil problem, at the time oil was hitting $150.  And his response was that he didn't care because he would die before the problem blew up.  I think that statement and mentality is a microcosm for the whole problem.  My grandparents parents started oil and it was good, then generation after generation they laid down their prayer rugs in homage to the oil gods.  The oil put food on the table, and that's all there is to it.  This mentality breeds among the people like a virus, but the virus could end up killing the host.

I'm not saying we run out of oil tomorrow, or even in the next 10 years, but oil's availability is undoubtedly heading lower.  The real kwestion here is what will we do after oil and what are we doing now to get there.  I think the short answer is no one cares.  The long answer so far is that, there will be a giant disaster due to oil suddenly "vanishing".  Corporate structure and political structure is unforgiving to dissenting views and the old players are at the top.  They've been told since the 70's that this ride would ultimately be unsustainable and their arrogance has showed. 

My hope is that in some secret government lab, they have a new age of energy sources waiting to be unveiled like a new TV, 1/2 an inch thinner than the last.

My worry is that there is a plan for the end of oil, but it has nothing to do with a replacement.  I worry that oil is to become a Pearl Harbor and a rallying cry for the same idiots who thought moving into Iraq for WMD's that weren't there was a good idea.

Eh Taters!?

I would post a count, but someone would just come on over here and steal it... either that or it'd just jinx the trade.  At least when I talk like this, you have to be an intelligent Elliott Wave practitioner to use it.

I think there are two scenarios for a down move; grinding lower, and plummeting lower.  Grinding would suggest the 1260-75 range, and plummeting would suggest 1200.  The plummeting could start off grinding, so...

see ya tomorrow!

Dear amphetamine bloggers

The waiting is the hardest part.  I see these counts changing daily as if all waves complete in 2 day time frames.  I believe fairly firmly, reaffirmed after today that this correction is still ongoing and while 1260 is at the bottom of the first target range, I still like that zone as a target.  If we're going to repeat the April fractal word for word then we bounce tomorrow, but I have my doubts of that period repeating.  Down week this week.  Friday at the lows.

#'s $'s

1320 critical, next 1308.5

Tomorrow Critical.  Time and Price, Don't get sucked into the second by second.  Fractals, Scale, Degree.  Trendlines and Channels.

The setup

[9:18] 1314?

This look ominous out there.  Not worried about the VIX anymore.  This downdraft is showing some real strength.  As it goes, I see 1200 more likely than 1260, but I'm as fickle as a pickle.  I'm ready to short the shit out of it now, this is fear and as long as we stay below the 20 on the 4 hour scale, I say it runs.  We might rally a little off the open, but it's probably just a head fake.  We have broken out of sub-wave scale, and there is relatively little chance that we bounce off these levels to new highs.  A lot of things are threatening to cross, a GIANT drop would not surprise me.

The waiting is the hardest part

[6:30] Did I mention that the waiting is the hardest part?  LOL, see you tomorrow!

[5:45] Starting to think this might just break on through to the other side... The VIX pulled back and closed a little above the bands, which to me says it might have what it takes to keep riding the bands higher...

Tom Petty was on to something when he said, "The waiting is the hardest part."  So here I am waiting.  Yeah I cashed out early, do I regret it?  Maybe a little, but I know that decisions like the one I made are what keeps you from losing the profits you like today when we gap tomorrow.  The VIX is stupid high right here, outside the daily bands by a good grip.  I think I remember saying a while ago around 18 or 17 that VIX was a steal... this is what I was getting at.  When the VIX comes back in to maybe the middle of the daily bands, I'll be ready to short the shit out of the market.