Monday, June 28, 2010

correction in progress

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Profit Pivot

I'm sticking with the flat idea for right now.  There are definitely other alternatives, but this one appeals to me.  I'm postulating that 3 of C has completed.  I had mentioned 1115 /ES as a spot where a new count would be needed.  Above 1115, 3 is the shortest.  If we clear 1115 without a significant retrace then you have to assume that 3 is more extended than is depicted.  A retrace to near 1080 puts us near the 13day MA and sets up nicely for a five wave to complete the correction.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Bear if you Dare...

I can't buy the bear case here. I've been bullish for a little while, and it's all conforming to the hypothesis so far. I'm going to hold it to it until it doesn't.

The daily ES charts look very strong now. We just got our MACD buy signal, and price is resting on the 13 day MA. I think holding at or over the 13 day MA is a hold for any longs.

My hypothesis is primarily a flat from the 5/25 lows. There is a possibility for a zig-zag, but in the end I think it doesn't change the outcome much. A proper flat should take us above the recent highs around 1100, but would likely push higher into say 1150 or so.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010