Wednesday, July 14, 2010

The Future of Energy

I am LIVID about these electric cars.  I know America, you think electric cars are awesome, but I intend to illuminate why electric cars are not a solution but a product that could feed off of a solution to fossil fuels.

Cars running on electricity have to get electricity from somewhere.  According to Wiki-answers (not reputable, but good enough for my rant) [], 71%, that's how much electricity is derived from fossil fuels.  These heat engines have losses in the process and are somewhere around 35% efficient.  So we burn something and get electricity, then we have to transmit it to your car.  Guess what, more losses!  7-8% depending on conditions.  Then there are also losses in the battery and motor.  This compares to an IC engine which is about 20% efficient, though some engines have been tested at over 50%.

So effectively what you do with electric cars, is burn more fossil fuels.  Now this statement, I admit, is not for sure.  You really need to run the numbers, and it is probably different for each individual situation.  But in the long run you can't look at electric cars as a solution.  We know how to make electric motors... this is not a new development.  The batteries need work, but that will come.  What we are in dire need of is a solution to power generation other than burning.

So, for argument's sake, let's assume that electric cars burn more fossil fuels due to losses.  Assuming that, let's run a scenario where gas prices explode to the upside.  The price hike serves as a catalyst to switch to electric/hybrid cars.  The drain on the power grid ups the fuel needed for power generation and due to losses, the total fuel burned increases, draining supply, and puts further upside pressure on fuel prices.

So don't just go into electric cars blindly.  The way I see it, it is yet another corporate con...

This is obviously just a rant, and not extensively researched or proved... there are a lot of things to consider, like what we save on shipping the gas to stations versus shipping fuels to centralized generators.  The scenarios are almost impossible to filter through.  My point really is just to think about it... what looks good at first glance might just have a nice paint-job.

[EDIT]:  Another issue I've been thinking about intra-day is that the grid currently is not ready to handle the extra electricity that would be needed to power all the cars in America.  This extra volume would require more generators and beefier transmission capabilities.  The extra volume could also instigate a less efficient system.

[EDIT]:  Either someone is watching my blog for ideas, or the collective unconscious is toying with me.  This afternoon, after posting this rant, some guy, Lindzon, goes on techticker talking about how Tesla is a stupid idea.  Can a guy get some credit for being pissed off first?


Fidelity:  Turn here.

If you don't see a peak here, you're asleep... or Helen Keller.

[EDIT]:  The morning looked ugly, rebounded... feeling a little less bearish.  Realistically, I can see one more push higher, but I will stick by my stance that there is a turn here within a few days.  It also depends on what you're watching because they all won't top at exactly the same time.

Monday, July 5, 2010

Minor 3 Continues


Minor 3 likely has more room to run.  If minor 4 terminates in range of 4 lesser degree then we might be sitting in the target zone of a minor four retrace right now.  Watch out for hard 5's.  The flash crash is a recent example of this, but there were other instances of hard 5 waves in the '07-'09 wave.  I do not believe intermediate one will have minor 4-1 overlap and thus am not looking for a large bounce in the short term.  Minor three really needs to go lower in order to give room for a minor 4 retrace.